Zelensky’s predicament

Zelensky’s predicament

by Mel Gurtov

956 words 

A Plan for Ukraine Without Ukraine’s Consent

The US has forged a peace proposal with Russia that, as the French are putting it, amounts to Ukraine’s capitulation. For President Volodymyr Zelensky, the worst possible world stares him in the face—a world in which Ukraine must sacrifice territory and self-defense to gain something resembling peace, and Russia must sacrifice nothing yet gain everything it has asked for and more. It is a dangerous moment for Ukraine in more ways than one. An investigation into corruption in Ukraine has found that allies of the president have enriched themselves during the war. 

Zelensky’s main opponent, former president Petro Poroshenko, is leading the charge to remove members of Zelensky’s cabinet. Other politicians and some civil society groups are also accusing the government of corruption. Under Ukraine’s martial law, Zelensky cannot be removed by election. But his popularity is fraying, at just the wrong time.

            The proposed peace plan comprises 28 points. I will comment on those points that seem most consequential for Ukraine’s immediate future.

On territory, Ukraine must withdraw troops from the Donetsk region in the east, ceding control to Russia of land it has failed to conquer as well as the areas of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia it seized illegally.

Ukraine must not seek to join NATO and must enshrine that pledge in its constitution.

Ukraine must agree to significantly reduce the size of its armed forces from between 800,000 and 850,000 military personnel to 600,000.

To ensure Ukraine’s security, the US and NATO agree that a “significant, deliberate, and sustained” Russian attack on Ukraine “shall be regarded as an attack threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic community.” The US and NATO will immediately consult to “determine the measures necessary to restore security,” including “armed force.” (Note how the wording leaves room for delay and disagreement in the event of a Russian breach of the agreement.)

Ukraine will not be allowed to host NATO troops, contrary to European proposals to send troops to deter Russia from attacking again.

To reconstruct Ukraine’s economy, it will receive $100 billion in frozen Russian assets–$200 billion less than had been planned by the Europeans, and $200 billion that will be returned to Russia! The US would get a 50 percent cut of the profits of investments made in Ukraine with that $100 billion, moreover. (Like the minerals deal with Ukraine, this last term reflects Trump’s taking advantage of Ukraine’s weakness.)

If Russia complies with the agreement, its membership in the Group of Eight will be restored. Sanctions will be lifted “in stages and on a case-by-case basis.” If Russia were to attack Ukraine again, “in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reinstated” and recognition of the seized territories will be revoked.

Made in Moscow

How did this deal come about? The key architect of the plan, Kirill Dmitriev, is head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund. The US treasury in 2022 said of the fund: “While officially a sovereign wealth fund, RDIF is widely considered a slush fund for President Vladimir Putin and is emblematic of Russia’s broader kleptocracy.” 

Dmitriev worked mainly with the appallingly ill-prepared Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy. Dmitriev leaked the outline of the plan and got certain US media to pick it up as though a done deal, reportedly catching some State Department officials by surprise. Putin is pretending that he, too, was in the dark, and that Russia is in the same position as Ukraine. “Russia is ready for peace talks and peaceful resolution of problems. But this requires, of course, a substantive discussion of all the details of the proposed plan,” Putin said. He must be dancing with joy over this golden opportunity.

Donald Trump has made a complete about-face. After the fiasco in Alaska, Trump seemed to move to Ukraine’s side, convinced that Putin was insincere about a cease-fire and was playing him for more time. Now, Trump may believe Russia has the upper hand on the battlefield and “holds all the cards,” as he once told Zelensky. 

Trump reportedly has given Zelensky one week to accept the plan or face loss of US support, meaning an end to sales of weapons to NATO partners for transfer to Ukraine and sharing of intelligence. “He’ll have to like it,” said Trump. “And if he doesn’t like it, then they should just keep fighting, I guess.” But Trump has also said the proposal isn’t his “final offer.”

A Dangerous Moment

Zelensky did not reject the proposed agreement outright, but in a nationwide address, he said: “Now is one of the most difficult moments of our history. . . . Now, Ukraine can face a very difficult choice — either losing dignity or risk losing a major partner.” 

Europeans, who were not consulted on the plan, are far from convinced of its fairness. “We all want this war to end, but how it ends matters. Russia has no legal right whatsoever to any concessions from the country it invaded,” said the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas. “This is a very dangerous moment for all.” Poland’s leader was adamant that any deal involving Ukraine must be approved by Ukraine.

People familiar with the US-Russia plan urge caution in reading it. Many points need clarification. They predict that Ukraine, NATO members, and Russia will all propose changes that may postpone any final agreement for many months. 

At some point, Trump may tire of the process and decide to abandon Ukraine, risking blowback from many Republicans in Congress. Ukraine’s European partners must anticipate the worst. It will be up to them, as it is now, to sustain Ukraine until the day a more equitable deal with Russia is on the table.

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Mel Gurtov, syndicated by PeaceVoice, is Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Portland State University.