Netanyahu at War as an Election Looms

by Mel Gurtov

960 words 

Netanyahu Rejects Trump’s Gaza Plan

The Trump-led Board of Peace claimed it had concluded an “historic” deal with Hamas and Israel under which Hamas agreed to disarm and turn over its weapons to a Palestinian entity and Israel agreed to withdraw from Gaza. But timing and terms of disarmament were critical issues—whether the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) withdraws from Gaza before or after Hamas disarms, and the extent of disarming. 

Israel’s concern, expressed by a spokesman for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is that “if we redeploy before Hamas is truly disarmed, it will quickly expand its presence throughout Gaza, rebuild its terrorist infrastructure, once again threaten Israeli communities, and seek to carry out another Oct. 7-style attack.”

Initial reports indicated that the Board of Peace had caved in to Netanyahu, saying that Israel will pull back from areas it controls only after Hamas disarms. Evidently, that is not enough. On Saturday, Netanyahu explicitly rejected the Board’s plan, demanding total victory over Hamas before any IDF redeployment from Gaza takes place. He said Hamas must turn over “heavy weapons, lighter weapons, all weapons,” adding, “We are talking about real disarmament.”

Hamas had agreed to the Board’s plan, which only specified turning over heavy weapons, but after an Israeli strike killed 17 people in Gaza, a senior Hamas official said the attack “clearly demonstrates that the occupation government is seeking to undermine efforts aimed at ending the war and to impose facts on the ground by force.” Since the October 2025 cease-fire, over 1,000 people have been killed in Gaza, including—according to UNICEF– 300 children, or about one child a day.

Cease-fires and Ongoing Violence

In Lebanon we see much the same story: Israeli attacks while cease-fire talks continue. The latest news is that Israel and Lebanon have held a seventh round of talks in Rome. The main topic is ”pilot zones” – areas from which the IDF has withdrawn and left to the Lebanese Army to control. Israeli officials say the IDF will only withdraw after “inspections” to ensure that no Hezbollah members remain in the zones. A still-unresolved issue is which entity will supervise the pilot zones.

Outside the talks, fighting goes on. Haaretz, the liberal Israeli newspaper that has always been highly critical of Netanyahu, says: 

“information obtained by Haaretz, as well as tours on the ground and recent satellite images, have shown that . . . as in Gaza, the IDF is carrying out extensive infrastructure work in the territory it captured in Lebanon, an area of about 600 square kilometers (230 square miles). Along the entire route from Israel’s border deep into south Lebanon, engineering vehicles, including excavators, road rollers and D9 armored bulldozers, are at work. Some are operated by civilian contractors.”

This construction work suggests that the military is preparing for a long stay in Lebanon.

The violence extends to the West Bank, where far-right cabinet members continue to support settlers who are setting fire to Palestinian property and IDF commanders are afraid to intervene. Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz, is refusing to answer questions posed in the Knesset on what is going on in the West Bank. Haaretz analyzed data from the Knesset and reports that “Katz has not responded to 30 parliamentary questions – a tool that allows Israeli lawmakers to oversee government activity – on settler violence and IDF policy in the West Bank and Gaza since taking office in late 2024.” A poll by the Israel Institute of Democracy found that 46 percent of Jewish Israelis believe that violent settlers are treated too leniently by the state, while about one quarter said they are treated too harshly.

Israel’s Election: Is Netanyahu on the Ropes?

These developments are occurring as Israel heads toward a critical election October 27, the first nationwide vote since the Hamas attack of October 2023. The election may finally spell the end of Netanyahu’s tenure. Polls show Israel’s opposition parties winning a combined 60 seats in the next Knesset, one seat short of a majority, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party are tied at 23 seats each. Altogether, the pro-Netanyahu coalition will hold 50 seats.

On the surface it might seem that Netanyahu stands little chance in light of the October 2023 disaster, his corruption trial, and the longstanding issue of whether or not the ultra-religious (Haredim) must serve in the military. But Netanyahu is a survivor if nothing else, and the IDF’s actions in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon enable him to pose as the indispensable protector of national security. 

As David Remnick writes for The New Yorker from Israel (August 3), Netanyahu “knows how to play on fear and has depicted himself as the only man ruthless enough to keep Israelis safe.” The flip side of the October 2023 disaster is that for many Israelis, all Palestinians became killers. Netanyahu “represents a deep skepticism toward Arabs unless they accept Israel’s dominance over the territory,” Remnick quotes an Israeli journalist.

Eisenkot, Netanyahu’s most likely successor, is being described as “the anti-Bibi” rather than someone with different ideas. For instance, Eisenkot does not advocate a two-state solution and is not critical of Netanyahu’s belated but deadly response to the Hamas attack of October 2023, in which Eisenkot lost a son. Eisenkot mainly seems bent on restoring national unity, relying on his reputation for integrity, and getting Israel out from under Netanyahu’s determination to keep the conflict with Iran alive.

David Remnick believes Trump holds the key to a Netanyahu victory. At the moment that’s not good news for Netanyahu, since Trump has clearly regarded Bibi as an obstacle to a war settlement with Iran. But Trump is notoriously unpredictable. He “may still prefer the devil he knows,” Remnick writes. 

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Mel Gurtov, syndicated by PeaceVoice, is Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Portland State University.